Big Tech In Big Trouble

Most folks probably aren't aware or concerned that the Big Tech companies have seen something like a reckoning lately. Most of it is related to regulation and trials about antitrust and monopoly. Google and Apple are especially in the hot seat. Might we see a world where Google no longer has the Chrome browser? What if Apple loses control of its App Store? Has Big Tech peaked?

Google

It's hard to see a future when Google lacks Chrome. I'm not sure selling its browser is feasible. I doubt it would make a big difference overall if it did. But maybe other browsers would flourish instead. So I've been using Microsoft's Edge again; it's a viable alternative. I also like Firefox, but I'm reluctant to put my eggs in that basket since Mozilla might not be able to hold onto it. I no longer use an iPhone or a Mac, so I wouldn't use Safari. I'm not interested in other browsers. A further question if Chrome must be divested: what would happen to Chromebooks? Yeah, I think I'll stick with my Windows laptop.

Apple

Jason Snell at Six Colors had this to say recently:

"Things are weird in Apple-land. Legal judgments are piling up in unexpectedly bad ways. Tariffs threaten large parts of Apple’s business. This year’s banner Apple Intelligence features got delayed indefinitely."

Lately, it seems there might be more misses than hits for the Cupertino company:

• It canceled its R&D car project
• The Vision Pro is practically a flop
• Apple Intelligence is an embarrassing debacle 
• Apple's hubris and malicious compliance is in civil criminal contempt of court

That last one appears to be forcing Apple to loosen its control over the App Store, to the benefit of developers and consumers. But if Apple further digs in its heals in any way, it could lose more control of it. Would it be feasible for Apple to be forced to spin off the App Store to an outside entity, like the threat of Google divesting Chrome or Android?

Tech Tide Turn

I don't know. But I do know that times have changed in the tech industry. The first ten years of the iPhone era were something of a golden-age in tech. It was the ushering of the smartphone revolution, the mobile app economy, and cloud/mobile computing. It completely affected culture at large, not just nerds and geeks who like gadgets. New phones and apps wowed folks annually, but that peaked a few years ago. Secondary effects, like mobile chip technology improving laptop hardware, have also started to cool.

Some might say A.I. is the next revolution. I say it's mostly hype. Yet it, too, is effecting what I think is somewhat a downturn in the tech and web landscape. Along with that, include the decline of social media's heyday too.

It seems a generation, about the last 20 years, of tech growth has started to turn stale or sour. Without citing examples, you might think the change is just me and my aging. I admit that may partly be a factor in how I'm perceiving the tech shift. I have grown a bit disillusioned with it. But I think it's largely beyond me; it's a sense I'm picking up from other bloggers and tech pundits.

Part of me is glad about this, despite my general affinity with tech. Why? Because after so much digitization of life, I see and feel downsides of it. And I think that's why Gen Z and Gen Alpha show signs of more "touch grass" vibes and some trends in reverting to analog or physical solutions for things. Dumb phones are more than a passing fad; they're a remedy, a tool for a better, more balanced, tech lifestyle.

There's also a cycle of tech trends seeking to cement The Next Big Thing. For example, before A.I. it was a vague "Web 3.0," the Metaverse (or Apple's version of AR/VR: Spatial Computing), Crypto, and Quantum Computing. Plus, it seems everyone is looking for what replaces the smartphone, as if we need more types of screens to look at it and distract us with constant internet connection. These tech trends have been slowly piling up, each hype cycle like a layer of sedimentary rock.

Wrap-up

It's been interesting. Big Tech innovation was exciting and promising. But now, not so much. Everything scaled to, I think, its biggest potential — billions of "users" and trillions of dollars. I always new the stratospheric growth, the uptrend, would eventually come down. When, how fast, and how far down is the question. And I think the Covid pandemic gave the tech sphere a timely, yet temporary, extra boost. But things are changing. Will A.I. prove itself as truly the "be all, end all" of tech cycles? Or is it mostly hype after all?

Where will things turn next?

Update: corrected "criminal contempt" to civil contempt.